2.3 Self-reported measures of tobacco consumption

Surveys that measure tobacco consumption typically measure how frequently people smoke and how many cigarettes they consume within a given time period (e.g. per day, per week, or per month). Both factory-made cigarettes and roll-your-own (RYO) are measured as the number of cigarettes consumed; surveys rarely ask respondents about the amount of tobacco that they use in a RYO cigarette. A 2018 study using the International Tobacco Control 4 Country longitudinal study quantified the amount of tobacco used in RYO cigarettes among Australians who smoke RYO tobacco, finding an average of 0.53 grams was used per cigarette.¹

This section primarily uses data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s (AIHW) National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS), and the Australian Secondary Students’ Alcohol and Drug (ASSAD) survey. As with all survey data, estimates are subject to sampling error. Relative standard errors for many of the estimates in this section are available in data tables produced by the AIHW, or can be supplied on request.

2.3.1 Self-reported consumption among adult smokers

Figure 2.3.1 shows estimated daily cigarette consumption since 1980 among people who regularly smoke factory-made cigarettes.

Consumption of factory-made cigarettes appeared to increase over the 1980s and then decline from the 1990s onwards for both males and females. Compared with 1980, reported average consumption in 2022-23 was about 40% lower in men and 32% lower in women. The linear decline in reported daily manufactured cigarette consumption between 2001 and 2022-23 was statistically significant for both men and for women (controlling for age).

Another way of looking at consumption over time is to examine any changes in the proportion of light, moderate, and heavy smokers among people who smoke. Figures 2.3.2 and 2.3.3 show the proportions of daily smokers who were light smokers (fewer than 10 cigarettes per day), moderate smokers (10 to 19 cigarettes per day), and heavy smokers (20 or more cigarettes per day) both among those who smoked factory-made cigarettes (FMCs) only (Figure 2.3.2) and among those who smoked roll-your-own (RYO) and/or factory-made cigarettes (Figure 2.3.3). These figures also show the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day among all daily smokers of the respective type of cigarettes.

Figure 2.3.2 shows that in the most recent period of 2019 to 2022-23, there was no significant difference in the proportion of daily FMC smokers who were light, moderate, or heavy consumers. This contrasts with the significant increase in the proportion of light smokers and decrease in the proportion of heavy smokers among people who smoked only FMCs between 2016 to 2019.

Similarly, Figure 2.3.3 shows that there was no significant change in the proportion of light, moderate, or heavy smokers of both FMCs and RYO between 2019 and 2022-23. This is in contrast to the significant increase in the proportion of light smokers and the decrease in the proportion of heavy smokers that occurred between 2016 to 2019.

In 2013, moderate consumers became the largest category among people who smoked factory-made cigarettes, with heavy consumers becoming the smallest category in 2019. Among people who smoked any cigarettes (either or both FMCs and RYO), moderate consumers became the most common category in 2016, overtaking heavy consumers. Light smokers have remained the smallest category, although the gap between light and heavy consumers has shrunk since 2013.

2.3.1.1 Self-reported consumption patterns by age

A person who smokes a ‘pack-a-day’ smokes 20 or more cigarettes per day. In 2022–23, 35.2% of people aged 18 years or older who smoked daily smoked at least a pack each day, similar to 2019 (33.3%).

The proportion of people who smoke who smoke a pack-a-day varies with age. Figure 2.3.4 shows the proportion of pack-a-day smokers among daily smokers by age group from 2010 to 2022–23. Fewer than one-in-five daily smokers under 25 years old were pack-a-day smokers, compared to 35% of 40–49 year olds. The proportion of pack-a-day smokers was highest among daily smokers aged 50 to 69 years old at approximately 46%.

The reported number of factory-made cigarettes smoked per day by adults who smoke cigarettes in various age groups since 1980 is shown in Figure 2.3.5.

Since the surveys began, young people who smoke have consistently reported lower consumption than older people. In addition, the proportional decline in cigarette consumption is larger for younger age groups than older: between 1980 and 2022-23, daily cigarette consumption declined by 53% among 18-24-year-olds, 57% among 25-29-year-olds, 53% among 30-39-year-olds, 37% among 40-49-year-olds, and 21% among those aged 60 years and older.

Table 2.3.1 also shows the average daily consumption of factory-made and/or roll your own cigarettes by age group and sex for people aged 18+ years who currently smoke, since 2001. In 2022-23, consumption was lowest among those under 30 years, and highest among those aged 50 years and older.

While consumption did not change within any group between 2019 and 2022–23, there have been substantial declines in average daily consumption since 2001 in those age 60 years and under. For those aged under 40 years, declines of between 29% to 40% were observed. The largest absolute reductions were seen among males aged 30 to 59 years, with average daily consumption reducing by 6.3 cigarettes per day from 2001 to 2022–23.

2.3.2 Self-reported consumption among school-aged smokers

Cancer Council Victoria (formerly the Anti-Cancer Council of Victoria) has co-ordinated surveys examining smoking prevalence among children attending Australian secondary schools approximately every three years since 1984. The prevalence of smoking among secondary school students is described in full in Chapter 1, Section 1.6.

Figure 2.3.6 sets out weekly consumption reported in each survey year by secondary school students who smoked at least one cigarette in the last week.

Since the surveys began almost 40 years ago, cigarette consumption has declined substantially among secondary students who had smoked in the past week. Among 12- to 15-year-olds, the number of cigarettes smoked per week has declined by about 65% from 1984 to 2022-23, and for 16 and 17-year-olds, the decline is even greater at about79%. Much of this decline occurred in the years between 2017 and 2022-23: consumption declined between 1984 and 2017 by about 33% for 12- to 15-year-olds and 50% for 16- and 17-year-olds.

There was no real difference in cigarette consumption between the younger and older secondary student groups in 2022-23, whereas in previously years, 16- and 17-year-olds reported smoking a significantly greater number of cigarettes each week than 12- to 15-year-olds.²

Figure 2.3.7 shows cigarette consumption over time among students who had smoked in the past week by age group and sex. The largest declines in consumption from 1984 to 2022-23 were among females: a 71% decline was observed among 12- to 15-year-old females and an 86% decline was observed among 16- and 17-year-old females. Substantial declines in consumption were also seen for male secondary school students over this period: 62% for 12- to 15-year-olds, and 68% for 16- and 17-year-olds.

2.3.3 Self-reported consumption by socioeconomic status

Along with being more likely to take up and continue smoking (see Sections 9.1 and 9.2), people who are socio-economically disadvantaged generally consume greater numbers of cigarettes each day than those who are socio-economically advantaged. Figure 2.3.8 shows average daily cigarette consumption (FMC and/or RYO) among people who smoke regularly, by socioeconomic group and year. Since 2001, there has been a significant linear decrease in consumption within each socioeconomic group (controlling for age and sex). In the most recent period of 2019 to 2022-23, there was a significant decline in daily cigarette consumption for those in the most disadvantaged group and the least disadvantaged group, but no change for those in quintiles two to four.

For a detailed discussion of consumption over time by various indicators of disadvantage, see Section 9.2.

2.3.4 Comparisons between levels of per capita tobacco consumption based on tax receipts and those based on self-report data

People who smoke tend to under-report their tobacco consumption.³ For further discussion about the relative validity of various methods of estimating consumption, see Section 2.6.

Section 13.7 also discusses factors that impact estimates of tobacco consumption based on receipts for payments of customs and excise duty.

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References

1. Branston JR, McNeill A, Gilmore AB, Hiscock R, and Partos TR. Keeping smoking affordable in higher tax environments via smoking thinner roll-your-own cigarettes: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey 2006-15. Drug Alcohol Depend, 2018; 193:110-6. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30352334

2. Guerin N and White V. ASSAD 2017 Statistics & Trends: Australian Secondary Students’ Use of Tobacco, Alcohol, Over-the-counter Drugs, and Illicit Substances. Second Edition.: Cancer Council Victoria, 2020. Available from: https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/secondary-school-students-use-of-tobacco-alcohol-and-other-drugs-in-2017.

3. Warner K. Possible increase in the underreporting of cigarette consumption. Journal of the American Statistics Association, 1978; 73(362):314-18.