2.3 Self-reported measures of tobacco consumption

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Table 2.8 above and Table 2.3 in the previous edition of Facts and Issues provide estimates of daily consumption among adult smokers in Australia based on official sources that measure tobacco taxation. The data presented below, by contrast, show the average number of cigarettes smoked per day as reported by cigarette smokers when questioned about their personal consumption in national surveys.[19]

2.3.1 Self-reported consumption among adult smokers

Figure 2.4 shows estimated consumption based on reports since 1980 just by those smokers who usually smoked factory-made cigarettes.

Reported numbers of cigarettes consumed by smokers of factory-made cigarettes appear to have remained fairly steady over the 1980s. Reported consumption has declined since the mid-1990s, with biggest declines after 1998. Compared with 1980, reported average consumption in 2004 was about 30% lower in males and 23% lower in females.

In its more recent series of surveys designed to evaluate the impact of the Australian National Tobacco Campaign launched in May 1997, researchers asked questions about consumption not just of those who reported mainly using factory-made cigarettes but also those who used mainly roll-your-own cigarettes. Rather than asking about the number of packets smoked per week, smokers were asked directly to estimate the number of cigarettes they smoked each day.[20][21][22]

Figure 2.5 shows average consumption among cigarette smokers—both smokers of factory-made and smokers of roll-your-own cigarettes—as reported by respondents in the pre-Campaign survey in May 1997 and in evaluation surveys conducted each year in November between 1997 and 2005.

Reported numbers of cigarettes smoked each day fell by about 10% between November 1997 and 2002 and then declined further between 2002 and 2005.

Another way of looking at consumption trends over time is to compare the percentages of smokers who can be categorised as light, moderate and heavy smokers. Figure 2.6 shows for each year since the beginning of the NTC in 1997, the percentages of daily smokers who, based on the reported number of cigarettes they smoked each day, could be classified as light (14 cigarettes or fewer), moderate (15 to 24 cigarettes per day) and heavy (25 or more cigarettes per day) smokers. In addition to the percentage of regular smokers falling into each category, Table 2.9 shows the mean number of cigarettes smoked by both daily and weekly smokers.

After 1999 when the price of cigarettes—particularly cigarettes in large pack sizes—increased significantly after tax reforms, the percentage of heavy smokers decreased sharply, with a corresponding increase in the percentage of light smokers. This trend has continued with the further reductions since 2003 corresponding to the broadening of smokefree policies, particularly in the hospitality and retail sectors—see Chapter 15.

2.3.2 Self-reported among school-aged smokers

The Cancer Council of Victoria has coordinated surveys examining smoking prevalence of children attending Australian secondary schools every three years since 1984. In each survey, students have been asked whether they have smoked in the last month, week and day, and those who have reported smoking at least weekly are asked to estimate how many cigarettes they have smoked in the last week.

The percentage of children smoking is described in full in Chapter 1, Section 1.6.

Weekly consumption reported in each year by students who smoked at least one cigarette in the last week (classified as 'current smokers') is set out in Figure 2.7 and Table 2.10.

Reported consumption per week in 2005 among secondary-school students who smoke at least once per week is about 23 cigarettes. Compared with consumption in 1984, consumption in 2005 is 17% lower in boys and 12% lower in girls.

2.3.3 Self-reported consumption patterns by age: adults

The reported number of cigarettes smoked per day by adult cigarette smokers in various age groups between 1980 and 2004 is shown in Figure 2.8 and set out in full in Table 2.11.

Middle-aged smokers smoke more cigarettes per day than younger and older smokers. Since 1983 when Quit campaigns were first launched in Australia and when tobacco taxes were substantially increased, reported cigarette consumption has declined in all age groups, with marked reductions in the numbers of cigarettes reported smoked each day in all groups under 60 years of age.

2.3.4 Self-reported consumption patterns by age: secondary-school students

Figure 2.9 sets out weekly consumption reported in each survey year by secondary-school students who report regular smoking in the ranges of 12-to-15 and 16-and-17 years.

Weekly consumption reported in each year by secondary-school students of each age between 12 and 17 who smoked at least one cigarette in the last week (classified as 'current smokers') is set out in Table 2.12.

Among those students who say they smoke at least weekly, over the entire 20-year period over which surveys have been conducted, reported consumption among younger students has remained at about 20 cigarettes per week. Among older students, reported consumption has declined markedly in the last three years from an average of about 33 cigarettes per week in 2002 and over most of the survey period, to about 25 cigarettes per week in 2005.

2.3.5 Self-reported consumption patterns by pack size

Until the mid-1970s, cigarettes in Australia were, as elsewhere in the world, sold almost exclusively in packets of 20. As described more fully in Chapter 13, the race to larger and larger pack sizes began with Winfield 25s in the early 1970s. During the 1980s, manufacturers introduced progressively larger packs until, by 1995, nine different brand families were sold as 30s, seven as 35s, three as 40s and three as packets of 50.64

Tables 2.13 and 2.14 show the number of cigarettes reported smoked per day by adults and by children in each year that smokers were asked about pack size.[23]

Both adults and children who purchased larger pack sizes reported markedly higher levels of cigarette consumption than those who purchased smaller
pack sizes.

2.3.6 Consumption by socioeconomic group

Table 2.15 shows changing patterns of reported consumption among various socioeconomic groups over the years in which survey data is available.

Smokers in lower socioeconomic groups report higher consumption of cigarettes than smokers in higher socioeconomic groups in all survey years.66 The reported number of cigarettes smoked per week in all groups has decreased over time—by about 25% since 1983 in all groups other than upper-white collar smokers among whom reported consumption appears to have fallen even more substantially.[24]

2.3.7 Comparisons between levels of per capita tobacco consumption based on tax receipts and those based on self-report data

It has long been known that smokers tend to underreport their tobacco consumption.67

It is evident looking at Section 2.3.1 that self-reported estimates of cigarette consumption among smokers appear to have declined much more significantly than the estimates of consumption among smokers based on excise and customs receipts outlined in Section 2.2.3.

Table 2.16 compares estimates of annual total and per capita consumption of cigarettes (both annual and daily) based on dutied tobacco products versus those based on self-report data for the year 2004–05. Total estimated dutied cigarettes are calculated including the number of cigarettes produced and imported for sale in Australia. Assuming that roll-your-own cigarettes weigh an average of one gram each, an estimate for the number of roll-your-own cigarettes made from locally manufactured and imported roll-you-own tobacco is included in the total.

Reported consumption per smoker based on the National Drug Household Survey data from 2004 was a full five cigarettes per day (or 26%) lower than per capita cigarette consumption for the 2004–05 financial year computed dividing the total number of cigarettes and smoking tobacco on which customs or excise duty was levied by the total number of people 14 years and over who report being regular smokers.

For further discussion about the relative validity of various methods of estimating consumption, see Section 2.6.